Reading Virtual Minds Volume II: Experience and Expectation Now Available on Amazon


First, we appreciate everyone’s patience while we got this volume out.
And now, from Holly Buchanan‘s Foreword to the book…

Reading Virtual Minds Volume II: Experience and ExpectationAfter inhaling Reading Virtual Minds Volume I I was like an antsy 3-year old waiting for Reading Virtual Minds Volume II. It did not disappoint.
I love the way Joseph Carrabis thinks. He has a unique ability to share broad rich theory with actionable specifics. Unlike many technical writers, he has a unique voice that is both approachable and humorous. It makes for an enjoyable read.
But what’s the main reason why you should read Reading Virtual Minds Volume II: Experiences and Expectations? Because where most companies and designers fail is on the expectation front.

Humans are designed as expectation engines.

This is, perhaps, the most important sentence in this book. One of the main points Joseph makes in this volume is this – Understand your audiences’ whys and you’ll design near perfect whats.
Design failures come from getting the whys wrong. That can lead to failures on the experience side, but also on the expectation side. And that can be the bigger problem.

Expectation is a top-down process. Higher-level information informs lower-level processing. Experience is a bottom-up process. Sensory information goes into higher-level processing for evaluation. Humans are designed as expectation engines. Topdown connections out number bottom-up connections by about 10:1.

Why is this so important?

In language, more than anywhere else, we see or hear what we expect to hear, not necessarily what is said or written. Across all cultures and languages, neurophysiologists and psychologists estimate that what we experience is as much as 85% what we expect to experience, not necessarily what is real or ‘environmentally available’.

And

When people expect A and get B they go through a few moments of fugue. External reality is not synching up with internal reality and the mind and brain will, if allowed, burn themselves out making the two mesh.

Get your consumer/visitor/user experience AND expectation right, get their why right, and you’ll be exponentially more successful.

Here are just a few of the goodies you’ll find in this book:

  • Privacy vs. value exchange and when to ask for what information. Joseph has some actionable specifics on this that will surprise you.
  • Why we design for false attractors rather than the real problem.
  • The importance of understanding convincer strategies. Convincer strategies are the internal processes people go through in order to convince themselves they should or should not do something.
  • Companies spend a lot of time trying to convince consumers to trust them. But what may be even more important is understanding how to let consumers you know you trust them. This book has ideas on how to show your customers/users/visitors, “I believe in you”.
  • How often our own experience influence our designs. Unless you’re able to throw all your experience out, and let the user’s experience in, get out of the usability and design business.
  • How to allow your visitors easy Anonymous-Expressive Identity and make them yours forever.
  • Regarding new material, design, interface, the importance of making sure your suggestions provide a clear path to the past (thus being risk averse while providing marketable innovation).

As always, Reading Virtual Minds provides specific actionable ideas. But it will also make you think and approach your work in a new way. And I think that’s the best reason to treat yourself to this book and the inner workings of NextStage and Joseph Carrabis.


(and we never argue with Holly Buchanan…)


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Reading Virtual Minds Volume I: Science and History, 4th edition

It’s with great pleasure and a little pride that we announce Reading Virtual Minds Volume I: Science and History, 4th EDITION.

Reading Virtual Minds V1: Science and History, 4th edThat “4th EDITION” part is important. We know lots of people are waiting for Reading Virtual Minds Volume II: Experience and Expectation and it’s next in the queue.

But until then…

Reading Virtual Minds Volume I: Science and History, 4th EDITION is about 100 pages longer than the previous editions and about 10$US cheaper. Why? Because Reading Virtual Minds Volume II: Experience and Expectation is next in the queue.

Some Notes About This Book

I’m actually writing Reading Virtual Minds Volume II: Experience and Expectation right now. In the process of doing that, we realized we needed to add an index to this book. We also wanted to make a full color ebook version available to NextStage Members (it’s a download on the Member welcome page. And if you’re not already a member, what are you waiting for?)

In the process of making a full color version, we realized we’d misplaced some of the original slides and, of course, the charting software had changed since we originally published this volume (same information, different charting system). Also Susan and Jennifer “The Editress” Day wanted the images standardized as much as possible.

We included an Appendix B – Proofs (starting on page 187) for the curious and updated Appendix C – Further Readings (starting on page 236). We migrated a blog used for reference purposes so there may be more or less reference sources and modified some sections with more recent information.

So this edition has a few more pages and a few different pages. It may have an extra quote or two floating around.

You also need to know that Reading Virtual Minds Volume I: Science and History is a “Let’s explore the possibilities” book, not a “How to do it” book. As such, it deals with how NextStage did it (not to mention things that happened along the way). It does not explain how you can do it. This book’s purpose is to open a new territory to you and give you some basic tools for exploration.

There are no magic bullets, quick fixes, simple demonstrations, et cetera, that will turn you into jedis, gurus, kings, queens, samurai, rock stars, mavens, heroes, thought leaders, so on and so forth.

How to Do It starts with Volume II: Experience and Expectation and continues through future volumes in this series. We’ve included a Volume II: Experience and Expectation preview with a How to Do It example on page 302 so you can take a peek if that’s your interest.

That noted, I’m quite sure that you won’t get the full benefit of future volumes without reading this one because unless you’ve read this one you won’t understand the territory you’re exploring in those future volumes.

Reading Virtual Minds V1: Science and History, 4th edThat’s Reading Virtual Minds Volume I: Science and History, 4th EDITION. It’s so good and so good for you! Buy a copy or two today!


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Canoeing with Stephane (Sentiment Analysis, Anyone? (Part 2))

The iMedia Brand Summit has kept me a little busy, and I do keep my promises.

One of the folks I asked about Sentiment Analysis prior to writing Sentiment Analysis, Anyone? (Part 1) was Stephane Hamel. I asked Stephane for a site I could analyze without my knowing anything about their strategy, demographics and such. Stephane suggested canoe.ca since it’s a well known Canadian site that receives lots of traffic and has lots of diversified content.

Canoe French homepage

The Canoe.ca site has an English and a French version so we analyzed the homepages of both versions to demonstrate the differences in cultural cuing. This image is the Canoe French homepage. Below is the English homepage. The information I’m sharing comes out of our tools, specifically the one I described in Sentiment Analysis, Anyone? (Part 1).

Canoe English homepage

This image is the Canoe English homepage. I’ll share at this point that the tool I’m using reads whatever digital information you give it exactly like a human of the intended culture would read it, provide it material in French and it thinks in French, provide it material in Gaelic and it thinks in Gaelic (we get a lot of calls for that, you betcha. The first language our technology understood was Gaelic because if you can do Gaelic you can do anything. Now we’re teaching it Etruscan because you never know when you might want to sell sandals to a dead gladiator). What makes the tool different from the standard human is its ability to report on what will or would happen in the reader’s mind at the non-conscious and conscious levels. Most people don’t have that kind of training, our technology (Evolution Technology or “ET”) does.

Age Appeal

Both homepages are designed for (not necessarily intended for. We’re not talking about who the desired audience is, we’re talking about who this material is going to work best with) relatively tight demographics. The French homepage will appeal to about 71% of the 25-34yo native French speakers who see it, the English homepage will appeal to about 60% of the 35-44yo native English speakers who see it.

<ET Tool Training Alert>
When I originally presented this analysis to Stephane for comment I thought that a possible reason for the different age appeal targeting was that the canoe.ca site was a Quebec specific site, hence English might be a second language — meaning learned via education or life experience — for Canoe visitors (ET will interpret higher levels of education and life experience as “more mature” hence add a few years to its age appeal estimates).

Stephane explained that canoe.ca was created in Toronto then moved into Quebec, and that the English site is still done in Toronto and the French site in Quebec.

In any case, what’s most interesting is the relative spikyness of the Appeal charts. This material — regardless of the intended audience or its origins– is designed to best appeal to a limited age demographic.

<Stephaneism>
Stephane noted:

Another thing… your classifications aren’t equal… why 15-19 (5 years), 35-44 (10 years), 55-59 (5 years)… Does each of the graph age ranges have the same “population size”?
The age groupings are based on neurology more than much else. The five year groups occur when the brain starts to change, the ten year groups are when the brain is relatively stable neurologically.
Usually, I think each segment should be the same range (number of years). If population is different sizes for different ranges it usually mean the number of classes should be reviewed. Am I wrong?

Excellent catch. The age breakdowns are based more on the most recent and most well documented neurology studies than anything else. As such, they can fluctuate from time to time. ET’s basis for understanding and decision making is neuroscientific, not marketing demographics per se. Originally we tailored the age breakdowns to match the US Census bureau’s breakdown and do our best to match those the best we can.

That offered, if you can define the age breakdowns of greatest interest to you (maybe 15-24, 25-39, 40-54, 55-74, … work best for you) we can tell ET and have the results appropriate to your needs.

</Stephaneism>

</ET Tool Training Alert>

Clarity/Understandability

Readers of Sentiment Analysis, Anyone? (Part 1) or Websites: You’ve Only Got 3 Seconds will remember that there are three “age” levels designers really need to be concerned with; Appeal, Clarity and Actionability. The brain-mind system doesn’t “think” in terms of a chronologic age, it “thinks” using one subsystem to determine “Is this going to be important?” (that’s Appeal), another subsystem to determine “Do I understand why this is important?” (that’s Clarity, Cognition, Understandability, call it what you will, god knows we have) and yet another subsystem to determine “Shall I do something about this?” (that’s Actionability).

The chart above shows that both English and French homepages will be best understood by a broad demographic, yes (the curve doesn’t spike), as well as a large population (its position on the chart).

<ET Tool Training Alert>
There is a possible problem when the Appeal and Clarity charts are taken together. The ideal is that Clarity peak at an age demographic just shy of the Appeal peak. This is necessary because humans, once you’ve got their attention, want to quickly determine if something is important or not. This desire to quickly understand something’s importance means less neural activity is required and ET reads that as a slight drop in neurologic age requirements.

However, the Clarity here is above the Appeal of both English and French audiences, meaning both audiences will need to work (as in “think about”) what’s on each page in order to understand its importance to them. If these pages truly are designed for the Appeal spikes, then they will not be easily understood by those age groups, hence Actionability (click through, conversion, whatever) will be lower than it could be.

On the other hand, if the target audience is 35-59yo, this Clarity is fine. Now the problem is that the age group will not find the homepages appealing enough to devote time or energy to them (except possibly some percentage of native English speakers), meaning “your conversions/clickthroughs/… would be higher with a judicious redesign”.
</ET Tool Training Alert>

Actionability (conversions, clickthroughs, …)

Both sites are designed to be actionable by 35-44yo. This is great for the French site (and assuming it is correctly designed for its intended audience) and not so good for the English site. Actionability needs to be a tad more than the Appeal because action requires effort and ET reports this as an increase in neurologic activity, hence a shift to a more mature age group.

<ET Tool Training Alert>
The good news for the French site is that the Actionability spike is pretty much as the same height as the Appeal spike and it’s in the correct demographic. This means every native French speaker who comes to the French homepage will act on it.

Unfortunately, the Clarity value is way off from where it should be. Native French speaking visitors may find the site appealing and be able to act upon it but they will not understand what it is they should do, hence numbers could be higher with some redesigns.

The English Actionability is acceptable and is also quite the spike. It almost matches the Appeal spike, but the page also suffers from the Clarity issue.

</ET Tool Training Alert>

Gender

Both sites favor a male audience design wise and in roughly equal measure.

Rich Personae, {C,B/e,M} Matrix

Often this is where real cultural design differences make themselves known. The English site is designed for an A9 Rich Persona (I’ve written about Rich Persona on this blog and in iMediaConnection), the French site for a V16 Rich Persona.

The A9 Rich Persona has the following attributes when it encounters web based information:

  • These people focus on the negative, they make decisions based on what might go wrong
  • They are motivated to take action when things are phrased in the negative
  • They often need to confirm their beliefs with visual information
  • They’re motivated by avoiding trouble and are strongly influenced by the possibilities of difficulties down the road

The V16 attributes are:

  • These people need to have information presented to them in pictures, charts or graphs
  • They finalize their decisions by using internal dialog
  • They need information framed in a positive manner before they can accept it
  • They have no sense of time or process

So we immediately see that the French homepage is designed for happier people than the English page.

<ET Tool Training Alert>
The fact that the two sites target completely different personality types can be a plus or a minus based on how much of the Canoe visitor populations match these psychological profiles. What is most important is that what is essentially the same design will target very different psychologies based on the native language of the visitor.

Which personality profile is better? Couldn’t tell you without knowing more about the goals for the site.

</ET Tool Training Alert>

10 Must Messages

10%20must%20messages%200906081039-small.jpg

The basis for communication and relationship are what NextStage calls “The 10 Must Messages”, meaning unless your site is communicating this messages well your site won’t work at all.

<Aside>
Interestingly enough, during the iMedia Brand Summit Master’s Class I taught earlier this week I asked all the attendees what the basic function of a website was. There were lots of answers and none of them were the most important one; to establish a relationship between the visitor and the brand. Regardless of intent, a relationship is being established and the success of that relationship is going to be based on how well the site communicates these messages to the visitors.
</Aside>

What we see here is something I mentioned in Sentiment Analysis, Anyone? (Part 1), that Canadian based companies tend to shout “We’re a Leader”. The fact that the two lines have roughly the same shape is to be expected (my guess is the same design group handled both homepages or a single template was used for both). Again we see some cultural based differences in the strength of the messaging.

<ET Tool Training Alert>
Take each line separately and the values are fair, there’s not a lot of shouting. What is a problem for both sites is the “This Is Important” message’s relative weakness. It is so low compared to most other messages on either site that visitors will feel no sense of urgency, no impulse to act, and in any case nowhere near as strong as it could be. The ideal would be for the “This Is Important” message and the “This Is Important To You” message to be high with the latter just enough higher to have visitors non-consciously recognize the difference.

I tend to liken the difference between these two messages to hearing the newscaster tell you about some news story then call in their talking-head to explain specifically why this news story is important to the viewer. Another way of thinking about their difference is the recognition that something may be important but not relevant to the individual versus important and relevant.

In any case, you can’t convince people that something is both important and relevant unless you first convince them that it’s important, period.

</ET Tool Training Alert>

Suggestions

That brings us to the last thing ET will report on, what to do to change the design for the target audience. I don’t know who the target is so any suggestions would be irrelevant, me thinks.

<Stephaneism>
After reading this analysis, Stephane commented:

I think what’s also interesting is ET gives you the data and the charts, but you still have to know that “Actionability needs to be a tad more than the Appeal because action requires effort”. The next stage of ET (no pun intended!) could involve bringing this “higher intelligence” (your intelligence!) to a rule engine that would gradually integrate this additional knowledge.
Let me take an example… web analytics tools today collect, analyze and provide the data, but they don’t provide any insight. Yet, some rules are readily applicable if we see high traffic from a specific campaign but a lower conversion rate than average: incoming traffic is less qualified, the campaign might need to be realigned. This intelligence could be integrated directly into the tool to raise “alarms” when things like this happen. The system would need to be trained and the architecture should allow to include new rules easily.

This is an excellent thought and yes, we’ve got it covered. People who’ve heard or seen my presentations know that one of ET’s differentiators is its ability to make suggestions. The tool that produces these reports — the one that doesn’t need a tag on a client’s site to generate actionable results — provides suggestions that incorporate “my intelligence” and additional knowledge (the system borrows heavily from knowledge management systems I worked on several years back) into its analysis. If I understand the rules system you’re describing, it’s already in there.

Anyway, we’re currently in the process of looking for alpha clients to help us integrate those rule engines into the product that does these analyses. [[(Already done and in NextStage OnSite, NextStage Experience Optimizer, NextStage Immediate Sentiment and NextStage Veritas Gauge)]]

</Stephaneism>

And there you go, Stephane. Hope it’s useful.


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Sentiment Analysis, Anyone? (Part 1)

We’ve been getting a lot of requests for Sentiment Analysis lately. Based on my fun ride regarding engagement, I decided to find out what Sentiment Analysis was before saying NextStage had been doing it for years, what’s all the excitement about?

So I went to Wikipedia and read “Sentiment analysis refers to a broad (definitionally challenged) area of…” “(definitionally challenged)”???

Ah. Yet another buzzword in a long list of “My gosh, what shall we call something else we can’t really do?” words being slung about in the analytics world.

Okay, fair enough. People selling the stuff are attempting to own the field by telling clients what it is, what it’s suppose to be about and what they should expect. Some of you may know that Susan has a pharma background and that I often advise pharmas. They often say something like “We just discovered that this chemical compound has these effects. Can we come up with some catchy-named syndrome that this concoction will treat?” Same thing, really. “We know what we can do. Let’s give it a name and see if we can sell it.”

But we are NextStage. We follow a different path.

Asking “What do you want a Sentiment Analysis product to do?”

I asked some people to tell me what they would like in a Sentiment Analysis product (thank you, Chris Berry and Stephane Hamel).

I wrote Chris:

Howdy,
I’m wondering what, exactly, you folks would like a “sentiment analysis” tool to do.
Oh, the heck with that. Please give me a list of things you’d like some tool to do such that when you point some content at it, it tells you something about that content that would be valuable to you/your clients.
Remember, you’re talking to Joseph here. Go nuts with this.

<Fair Warning Dept>
This is going to be a long, rambling post, folks.
…and I plan on having fun, too…
</Fair Warning Dept>

Chris responded with:
<Begin List of Unreasonable Metrics>

  1. The aggregate degree of trust between a person (brand) and a social network or contained in the message.
  2. The aggregate degree of affinity between a person (brand) and a social network or contained in the message.
  3. The intent behind a comment (author intent) (Referral: I like this, you’re a friend, you will like this too. Check it out. :: Retribution: You piss me off. I’m telling everybody to avoid you. :: Love: I just want to say how great you guys are. :: Constructive: I like you, this is what I want now. Troll:: I don’t really feel anything towards you, I’m bored and I want to be entertained.)
  4. Is the comment “Positive”, “Negative”, or “Neutral” – accurate to within +/- 5%, 19/20. This is how most social vendors classify it. I don’t consider these numbers to be helpful, but they are ‘standard’. However, they tend to have a much higher rate of error. (3) is where it’s at.
  5. {C, B/e, M} profile of the author of a comment or blog post.
  6. The likelihood that the message will have the desired intent on those who read it.
  7. The likelihood that the message will have the desired intent based on psychographic distance from the author.
  8. The ability for the tool to return a CSV (or some other file) listing the social graph of the {C, B/e, M} profiles in relationship to each other within a specific tribe, in general, for the purposes of segmenting discussions based on expert areas. (Testing the 1957 “Word-of-Mouth” studies and the whole air conditioning patterns for new product introductions.)
  9. The likelihood that the message will be remembered or committed to memory. (Goes to that damned traditional metric: message recall. I don’t think that conscious recall is nearly as important than sub-conscious recall, but I’ll admit being wrong if shown evidence to the contrary.)
  10. The gender and age of the author of a comment or blog post.
  11. The gender and age of the composition of the social network observing the comment or blog post. [Tribe analysis].
  12. The purchase / re-purchase intent of the author.
  13. Identification of who, within a social network, is an influencer, a gatekeeper, or a hub. (IE. Identification of who should I talk to first to get movement on a message.)
  14. Suggestions, based on the {C, B/e, M} profile, of how to frame a message.

If NS wanted to compete on a ‘whole product’ basis:

<End List of Unreasonable Metrics>

I’m being unreasonable. You expected it though?

<Susanism>
I showed Susan Chris’ wishlist. “But we already do all that,” she said. “It’s already in TargetTrack.”[[we broke out the original TargetTrack tool into several NextStage tools]]
</Susanism>

(skip down to the boring stuff)

Zappos Twitter page

I then asked Chris for a webpage to analyze. He sent me http://twitter.com/zappos. As I’m learning about Twitter myself, I kept on clicking the “more” button at the bottom of the page for a while. Eventually I had the page from 3:10pmET 2 June 09 back to “10:41 PM Mar 28th from web”. I broke this into two files, one was just the comment stream, the other was the whole page — graphics and everything — including the comment stream.

Why did I do this? Because people will non-consciously be influenced by all the information presented, not just the comments.

Then I fed both into the ET TargetTrack tool [[The original TargetTrack Tool has been broken out into many of NextStage’s tools. This particular tool has been available since 22 Mar 2001. You’ll find some TargetTrack case studies on our Case Studies page.

<Anecdote>
Chris and others may remember my visit to the Chicago Critical Mass offices in Aug ’08. I was told a client company was interested in modifying their websites for three countries. I asked for the websites, fed them through TargetTrack on my laptop in my hotel room while having breakfast that morning before the meeting (did I mention that TargetTrack, like all ET based tools, is highly compact, extremely accurate and very fast? It’s not sexy, whatever Rene means by that, but compact, accurate and fast? Those we can do), and read the results over a cup of coffee.

<Dr.Geertzism>
Dr. Geertz, who some of you may remember as commenting on my TheFutureOf posts, has become one of my most trusted first readers. On reading through this he offered “With regards to ‘sexy’ as defined by Rene. Think about what a man or woman finds sexy. Focus. Would you describe it as compact, accurate, and fast? Maybe ET needs to become mysterious, exotic, dangerous, and built. There is a euphemism about partnering in business is ‘getting in bed with’ someone. Do a survey and see how many women want to get in bed with someone that describes themselves as fast and compact. Sexy? At least shoot for satisfying, thoughtful, and robust.

What I love about this is that it’s all in how one applies the terms.
</Dr.Geertzism>

When I arrived at the Critical Mass offices, I mentioned off-handedly that two of the sites would do well, one wouldn’t because TargetTrack had determined it wasn’t designed to appeal to that one country’s cultural biases.

I said it off-handedly because I’m use to TargetTrack revealing stuff like that. It was routine and old-hat to me.

And TargetTrack was right on track regarding which country’s website was performing poorly. And why.
</Anecdote>

TargetTrack is simply another implementation of our Evolution Technology (ET). That’s the technology some of you may have heard talk about recently, the technology with the very good scores at recognizing age and gender of site visitors without asking questions, without using forms, without polling other internet databases, and if you think age and gender is all it can do we should talk some time. I’ve been telling people about this stuff since 1999 so I’ve got the patter down pretty well.[[NextStage Members can access the full research paper, Machine Detection of Visitor Age and Gender via Analysis of Psychomotor Behavioral Cues, on the Members’ Papers page. A synoptic paper can be found at Predicting Age and Gender Online]]

ET itself isn’t a tool. For that matter, TargetTrack itself isn’t a tool. They are both tools that make tools (@jdaysy, this is an example of Eliadeianism at work. Most analytics tools that I’ve seen are Maslowian in nature. They are designed to do one thing and one thing only. ET, TargetTrack, etc., are tools that can be used to create more specific tools. As ET is based on human intelligence and humans (I’m hoping) can do more than one thing once taught how to do it, so can ET and its derivatives).

<Anecdote>
One of NextStage’s early investors told me “You’ve invented plastic. It doesn’t matter if they want a baby bottle or a car dashboard, all that matters is that you shape the plastic the right way. That’s what ET is, it’s a kind of plastic that people can shape to do what they need it to do.”

I love the elegance and accuracy of that.
</Anecdote>

An original TargetTrack report

TargetTrack comes in lots of flavors. The example shown here is the basic one pager and is what we provide if a) you’re not using our technology on your website and b) you come in through our TargetTrack page. [[These days you can either become a NextStage Member, take some training and access TargetTrack and lots of other tools on your own or hire us to consult and we’ll use it for you.]] We offer lots of versions based on what you need to know, all machine generated so human minds never touch them. Why is that important? Because human minds — without massive amounts of training [[(and we have that training)]]— can’t be a) neutral when responding to information and b) swap their consciousnesses in and out as required to understand how other people would respond to information. Thus unless you specifically want humans to evaluate your work and you know for a fact that the humans doing that evaluation are exactly smack-dab in the center of your target audience…

<Harrumph Dept>

attract-engage-act.jpg

And allow me a moment, if you will. The TargetTrack report shown in the above figure was produced for a client on 30 Apr 07. The yellow bar in the chart on the bottom right is entitled “Engage” as in engagement, as in “this is how well you’ve been able to focus their attention so that they’ll do what you want them to do while they’re on your site”. I know others define engagement differently than NextStage does. For us, it’s all about getting people to act, to do, so our definition of engagement — which is based on well documented psychologic concepts that have been around for over a century now — is more about getting visitors to respond the way you want them to respond (and we’ve been measuring and reporting on engagement for a long time in internet years) than about determining the ballast mass of their keyboard divided by the number of visits to your sites multiplied by the number of letters in their mother’s maiden name. Or some equally contrived calculation.

You just know Susan’s going to pull this, don’t you?
</Harrumph Dept>

Anyway, It took TargetTrack less than a minute to analyze both the whole web page and just the comments.

How Accurate is a Tool that Produces Results That Quickly?

Back in 2005 Progress Software asked us to determine which of their existing and potential partners would be successful. We used the same TargetTrack tool to analyze some 150 partner sites that was used in this analysis. ET picked the top four performers knowing nothing about the companies, only being able to predict how visitors would respond to their websites.

These four sites were the most successful Progress partners that year.

The only difference between then and now is the number of digital personalities in our system. Then it was 25,000. Now it’s about 10x that, meaning “increased accuracy”. [[And now it’s over 3MM.]] And TargetTrack is the tool we used to predict the outcomes of elections, to change the political landscape in Nova Scotia and of course to help clients save money and make money. Thank goodness there are people out there who care more about results than sexy, yes?

(start of the boring stuff)

What follows are TargetTrack’s responses to Chris’ wishlist. I’ve indicated the things TargetTrack can already do “off the shelf” and the things it can do “kind of”, meaning the best answer would be a combination of our tracking tool and TargetTrack.

The aggregate degree of trust between a person (brand) and a social network or contained in the message. (already in TargetTrack)

10 'Must' Messages

Some people may remember my eMetrics SF ’07 presentation. Part of that presentation dealt with The 10 “Must” Messages, two of which are “We Trust You” and “You Can Trust Us”. These two combine to answer Chris’ first question although it’s better to keep them separate, as we’ll see.

And I guess this is where we start offering trainings on using our technology.

Lesson the First: It doesn’t matter what the score is in isolation, it matters how well the score matches other information in the visitor’s environment. Someone sipping a glass of wine while reading an excellent novel doesn’t want an intruder to come up to them and shout “I TRUST YOU”. Whoever is doing the shouting will be evaluated as an “intruder” at best and a “nuisance to be avoided at all costs” at worst, hence the desire is to communicate “I Trust You” just enough to be recognized and favorably responded to, nothing more.

This image shows the 10 “Must” Messages of the Twitter Zappos page together with their relative strengths. You’ll notice that some messages are being SHOUTED compared to others? Not good, that. As far as it goes, the “We/I Trust You” and the “You Can Trust Me/Us” messages should be of fairly equal value (this is based on Fair-Exchange Concepts. You’ve read my work on Fair-Exchange Concepts, haven’t you?). Here the comment author’s variance between trust messages is just shy of being non-consciously recognizable, meaning readers may get a sense the author is asking to be trusted (message 2) rather than being found trustworthy. What’s worse is that the comparative intensity of the some of the other messages will probably drown out any “trust” messages being sent unless the audience specifically looks for them. This “looking for a message” can occur when the author is very well known to an audience and they’ve come to expect and often desire the variance in message strength.

<FYI>

This image is another version of our TargetTrack tool report. This was a 50 page report produced when a client gave us a brochure for analysis. You’ll notice the 10 “Must” Messaging reports in the lower left corner.
</FYI>

An interesting aspect of the human brain-mind system is that it allows different signal sources to supply similar signals differently. This means someone could be browsing a site while sitting on their backporch (as I am as I write this) and the brain-mind keeps separate shouting from the website and shouting from the woods behind my home. The brain-mind quite easily determines which of these two should get priority attention and they’ll rarely overlap (I’ll rarely have to struggle deciding which one I want to pay attention to. The woods always wins).

However, two competing websites? Or two equally attractive birds sitting in the pines in front of me? So what we often tell clients is that it’s nice to get a reasonable score when analyzing just your own stuff, it’s better to know how well it does against the averages of competitors. This image shows just such a comparison, specifically one company’s “We Trust You” message against all competitive companies’ “We Trust You” messages in our system. What we learned was that a visitor moving between websites — the client’s and their competitors — would feel more trusted hence more at ease hence willing to do business on competitor sites than on the client’s site. Why? Because most competitor sites were communicating “We Trust You” better and just enough better to be noticed, not to make the visitor feel they were being shouted at.

The aggregate degree of affinity between a person (brand) and a social network or contained in the message. (already in TargetTrack)

This is handled by the “We’re/I’m Good People”, “You’re Good People” and “They’re Not Good People” messages. As before, the goal is to have the messages work well together, not stand out on their own. The ideal is to have “We’re/I’m Good People” communicated with just a little less intensity than “You’re Good People”, as in a demonstration of humility followed by a recognition of another’s worth or value (as a person). The “They’re Not Good People” — the message about your competitors — is the one where some definite increase in intensity is allowed. Not a shout so much as a definite statement.

<Anecdote>
We did a comparison analysis a number of years back for Fidelity. They asked for a comparison of their mutual funds product path (the path that must be navigated from a landing page through a conversion) against five competitors (Merrill Lynch, TRowePrice, Schwab, Vanguard and SmithBarney). All of their messaging was quite comparable until you got to “They’re Not Good People” and “We’re/I’m A Leader”. Basically all of their product paths were communicating We/I Trust You…We/I Can Help…You’re Good PeopleTHOSE OTHER PEOPLE ARE LYING, CHEATING BASTARDS! STAY AWAY FROM THEM IF YOU VALUE YOUR LIFE AND THE LIVES OF YOUR CHILDRENAND WE’RE FREAKIN’ INCREDIBLE.

This needs to be compared to Canadian based companies where the laws are different. Canadian companies can’t openly communicate that their competitors are pooty. Comparisons between companies in verticals there tended to yield results along the lines of We/I Trust You…We/I Can Help…You’re Good People…They’re Not Good People…AND WE’RE FREAKIN’ INCREDIBLE.

Learning the differences in cultures is one of the reasons I love my work.
</Anecdote>

The intent behind a comment (author intent) (Referral: I like this, you’re a friend, you will like this too. Check it out. :: Retribution: You piss me off. I’m telling everybody to avoid you. :: Love: I just want to say how great you guys are. :: Constructive: I like you, this is what I want now. Troll:: I don’t really feel anything towards you, I’m bored and I want to be entertained.) (already in TargetTrack)

One of the things TargetTrack reports on (one of the original core functions, actually) are “hidden” messages. This is documented in several places and you don’t really care about psychobabble at this point, do you? How about some marketingbabble instead, “TargetTrack reporting also scans media content for subtext and hidden messages and creates a unique Key Marketing Messages report which determines how marketing materials communicate value by scanning for content and design features which most effectively denote trust, professionalism, helpfulness and leadership to consumers.

An example of a hidden message that was costing companies money can be found in Site-Penetration Up 225%, Time-On-Site Up 300%, Conversions Up 20% in Four Months. There are other examples where the designer didn’t like the company they were working for, didn’t feel they were appreciated, didn’t feel the project they were on was worthy of their talent and skills and each time their negativity was non-consciously embedded in the work they were doing, each time non-consciously picked up by the audience and each time costing the unsuspecting client time and money.

Some other messages TargetTrack found in marketing material include “Don’t Mess with Me” (perhaps that’s Chris’ “Retribution”), “I’m Different From Every Other Person I Know” and “I can make a career here for myself because nobody else knows what they’re doing here” (a law firm asked us to evaluate resumes using TargetTrack (we actually analyze resumes for lots of companies and how we do it is an example of the TargetTrack tool being used to create another tool, our ResumeReader)).

While I’m disinclined to suggest any hidden messages on this page, I am left wondering how comfortable the author is either Twittering, in their current position or how long they’ve been in their current position.

Hmm…Rene was telling me that several people have approached him about starting a company wherein ET analyzes funds and stocks based on its predictive ability (see Predicting Election Outcomes Via NextStage’s TargetTrack and Working with Prediction Markets via NextStage’s Evolution Technology)…and now lots of CEOs are blogging, twittering…hmm…

You know, several companies have asked us to read through the materials submitted by potential employees, not just their resumes, to get an idea of how well these individuals would fit in…so if we use our ResumeReader tool on this page…

This job applicant’s ability to help and their reliability may cause challenges depending on their position in the company. However, they will work very well with others and require next to no supervision. The juxtaposition of the Ability to Help, Works Well with Others, Requires Little Supervision and Reliable values indicates this applicant will work better in group or cooperative work environments than as an outsider and should not be considered for “work at home” or “remote office” situations. Trustworthiness is acceptable and the Competent value indicates they will probably grow into their job in a minimal period of time.

<Anecdote>
NextStage’s ResumeReader tool passed initial muster when we opened our Toronto offices. Our CEO (at that time) told me he was using TargetTrack to evaluate the resumes of programmers. We were in the conference room and he was synchronizing his laptop to the projector so things were flashing in and out on the screen. He mentioned one fellow in particular and a TargetTrack’s analysis flashed on and off. I knew nothing about the fellow we were discussing, his history, had never read his resume, only glanced at the TargetTrack results for a moment and said, “Well, that resume was written about two years ago and the fellow was very unsure of his future at the time. He was between jobs and trying to figure out what to do with himself.”

Our CEO stared at me. “That’s the report on my resume,” he told me. “The one I wrote two years ago when I’d just sold my first company and was trying to decide what to do with my life.”

Budda-boom.

<FYI>

And you, too, can have that facility with TargetTrack reports. All it takes is a little training…
</FYI>

Two senior people from a large jobsite, starts with an “M”, wanted to use our ResumeReader as part of their offering. During talks, it came out that they wanted to create a company that would sell this service to “M”. And they didn’t want “M” to know about any of our discussions until it was already a done deal. And they wanted all the rights. But don’t let “M” know about any of this. Ever. And they were greedy. Oh, were they greedy. You should have seen their eyes glaze over and heard their cackling laughter when they talked about charging “M” then offering slightly different versions of the ResumeReader tool to “M”‘s competitors.

We said “no.” Okay, I said “no”.

I’m told some people read the bottom of our homepage and consider it rude, that I’m basically saying “…if you’re not willing to put money upfront (and not a little money) don’t bother me.” [[They’d really love the one we’re using now (Susan’s design).]]

Well, that’s correct although not because I’m greedy or money-hungry. Frugal, yes, greedy or money-hungry though? Have you read our Principles? I am greedy with my time, that I’ll grant, and I do recognize posting our prices is the equivalent of “You have to be this tall to get on this ride”.

It’s also a block to certain kinds of people. Look through those Principles and you’ll see several ways to alter the prices we charge. Lots of people do. There are lots of ways to be tall and not everyone is willing to stretch. As I wrote, those prices are a block and only to certain kinds of people.

Sometime when we’re at a conference ask me to talk about cultural and social taboos, such as the taboo against discussing money but lack of taboos around discussing financial matters within certain groups and cultures. It plays a lot in designing culture and group specific information.

Or you can take one of our trainings as we often cover the same material there.

But greedy versus frugal? Moi? (Stephane loves my Frenglish)

True story: Someone said they’d help NextStage with marketing “for only 20% of the company”. I asked “Can you prove you’re worth it?” and they couldn’t. I don’t mean they couldn’t prove it to my satisfaction, I mean they couldn’t prove it, period. Nor could they demonstrate it. Anywhere. So I said “No thanks.”

Had they been able to prove their worth at all, I would have considered their offer. As it was, I would call them greedy. I would not call them greedy if they could have proved their worth, but do so because they could not. I would call myself frugal. I don’t accept someone telling me their worth without a demonstration of same, but once they demonstrate it? They can fail, all they need do is demonstrate the effort and my world is theirs.

You really should read those Principles.
</Anecdote>

Specific to Chris’s list and only comparing the values against themselves, we find that the strongest non-conscious intent is retribution. However, the relative strengths of Referral, Retribution and Constructive indicate that such non-conscious messaging is probably part of the author’s psychological makeup and nothing specific to these posts. This is where a helpful exercise is comparing this author’s material against similar material elsewhere, such as a competitor’s twittering or even the author’s own writing not contained in these twits.

I think what’s more important here is that if you can form what you want to know into a question or statement such as Chris did, ET can answer it. Most of the reports we provide are based on questions clients asked us, usually blue-skying their hearts out while doing so.

Is the comment “Positive”, “Negative”, or “Neutral” – accurate to within +/- 5%, 19/20. This is how most social vendors classify it. I don’t consider these numbers to be helpful, but they are ‘standard’. However, they tend to have a much higher rate of error. (3) is where it’s at. (already in TargetTrack…kind of…)

It’s one thing to be positive, negative or neutral in general, it’s a completely different thing to be positive, negative or neutral as defined by your target audience. The world may love you but if the people you want to do business with think ill of you, it doesn’t matter what the world thinks. Likewise, if your target audience thinks the world of you, do you care what opinions others may have?

And do we mean negative, positive or neutral to a specific person, some cultural or ethnic group, some product or service, government, …? TargetTrack can fine tune it’s answers based on what you want to know.

How accurate? It will be accurate to within 83% based on the author’s {C,B/e,M} matrix at the time of their writing. For those who haven’t seen my presentations, the {C,B/e,M} matrices are the Cognitive, Behavioral/effective, Motivational neurologic, psychologic and sociologic methodologies that people employ to get through their day (and usually without knowing they’re doing so). Someone who’s always upbeat has a different {C,B/e,M} matrix than someone who’s shy, for example. Someone from Espania has a different one than someone from Alba Nuadh. Discovering where these matrices overlap and how they overlap is the key to cross-cultural marketing even when the cross-cultural aspect is just NH versus Tennessee and so on.

What I will offer is that this question is best answered by a combination of TargetTrack and our tracking tool (yep, the one Rene mentioned). It’s often fun to match an author’s intent with the readers’ perception of that intent. Doing this requires our tracking tag be on your site/blog/whatever. Interesting things can come out from that kind of study.

For example, if we learn than an author is habitually more negative than positive in their discourse AND we know that readers’ level of interest peaks during those periods, then escriva negativa, my lad.

{C, B/e, M} profile of the author of a comment or blog post. (already in TargetTrack)

Click on the above TargetTrack examples and you’ll see that much of the {C,B/e,M} matrix information is included as statements about gender, age (yes, I know. Gender and Age again. And since 2001. Who knew?), so on and so forth. We can include as much or as little of the {C,B/e,M} matrix information as you want.

This, for example, is an analysis of some marketing material that’s well designed to appeal to what we recognize as a K13 Rich Persona. I’ve written about Rich Persona on this blog, on iMediaConnection, lots of different places. What’s a Rich Persona? It’s the heart, gut and mind of the persona you create during your marketing discussions. Doesn’t matter if you create “Jeep Driver Joe” or “Soccer Mom Sally” or anything else, you’re simply creating a true fiction with no basis in reality other than your own machinations until you imbue that persona with dreams, desires, pains, pleasures, hopes, anxieties, desperations, relationship problems, and most importantly ways they would deal with all of these things, how they think about them, how they would respond to them, what and how they would ignore them and so on. Put all that together and your persona is now Rich.

People who saw my eMetrics Toronto ’08 presentation may remember that I shared how the {C,B/e,M} matrices for different parts of Canada were shifting over time. This happens all the time and translates to “Keep your materials fresh because what works today might not work tomorrow.”

And before I forget, this author is demonstrating an A9 {C,B/e,M} matrix or Rich Persona. Their material will most strongly influence readers who:

  • make decisions based on what might go wrong

  • learn best when what they’re learning can be directly applied to a harmful or painful possible future event
  • often seem mentally absorbed
  • often seem to loose focus on what’s going on around them
  • engage in internal dialogue (usually in the form of self-directed statements) in order to make decisions
  • will listen to others’ advice only if the advice has a negative form (“Oh, you don’t want to do that because…” “There’ll be problems with that because…”)
  • focus on the negative
  • are motivated to take action by arguments and/or explanations which cast things in a poor or bad light
  • pay more attention to what’s not working when evaluating situations
  • often need to confirm their beliefs (whether valid or not) with visual information

  • will only accept visual confirmation if what they are shown confirms the problem rather than the solution
  • base final decisions on anticipated problems or errors in their or other peoples’ judgements
  • pay little attention to what’s going on right now when making final decisions
  • are strongly influenced by the possibility of pain or difficulties down the road (although they will not intentionally seek pain or difficulties out they are still sure the pain and difficulties exist and are waiting “to greet them”)
  • will ignore any difficulty or pain they’re presently in if a future pain or difficulty is inferred, threatened, demonstrated or explained

  • ignore emotional appeals unless the appeal takes the form of a conversation or lecture in which a worse or negative outcome is defined or identified
  • demonstrate that a conclusion has been reached or something has been learned by some small, outward sign or motion, such as a slight or single nodding or shaking of the head, a slight clenching of the hands or movement of the fingers, or a slow, deep breath.

No wonder their writing showed up as slightly negative, huh?

Anyway, this {C,B/e,M} matrix information can be for the author, the audience, let us know when you ask for a TargetTrack (depends on which one you ask for) and we’ll provide the information for you.

For example, a law firm gave us an ad to analyze along with some responses from different people to that ad (this is documented in Reading Virtual Minds Volume I: Science and History. TargetTrack could individualize gender, age, geographic location and job description of the respondents by analyzing their responses.

But really, how useful is knowing this unless you know how to design for whatever {C,B/e,M} matrix information and Rich Personae your dealing with (and did I mention we offer trainings on just that)? Some of these images contain suggestions for improving audience (oh, dare I say it?) engagement, attention to, interaction with, whatever the buzzword de jour is, with your material.

Suggestions are included in all our TargetTrack products. That was one of the first things TargetTrack was designed to do, provide direct, actionable suggestions on how to get your material into the hearts and minds of your target audience as quickly and as economically as possible.

I mean, all these TargetTrack reports may or may not be pretty and (according to Rene) aren’t even sexy but who cares if you don’t have real, you can do it, actionable items provided with your report? You’re just shooting in the wind if you don’t, right?

So we give suggestions, to-do’s, action items, call them what you will, and in some cases listed in Critical, Important and Desirable order.

The likelihood that the message will have the desired intent on those who read it. (already in TargetTrack…kind of…)

We can determine what an author’s desires regarding their audience response are via TargetTrack alone.

To know if the desired intent is actually being realized while people are reading the material requires our web tracking tool.

The likelihood that the message will have the desired intent based on psychographic distance from the author. (already in TargetTrack…kind of…)

See above.

The ability for the tool to return a CSV (or some other file) listing the social graph of the {C, B/e, M} profiles in relationship to each other within a specific tribe, in general, for the purposes of segmenting discussions based on expert areas. (Testing the 1957 “Word-of-Mouth” studies and the whole air conditioning patterns for new product introductions.) (already in TargetTrack)

Compare the above Quebec Thought Progressions with this chart from that same eMetrics Toronto ’08 presentation, this one for all of Canada or the one below for British Columbia, all during the same three month time period. These are actually from our Personae Mapping Tool, yet another variation of ET and TargetTrack (there’s that “using tools to make tools” thing again, @jdaysy).

Anywho, these are graphs of the {C,B/e,M} matrices within different tribes and groups within those tribes. ET can do this for whatever you describe; areas of expertise, geographic locations, ethnic factors, language of origin, …

The likelihood that the message will be remembered or committed to memory. (Goes to that damned traditional metric: message recall. I don’t think that conscious recall is nearly as important than sub-conscious recall, but I’ll admit being wrong if shown evidence to the contrary.)(already in TargetTrack…kind of…)

This is another one that requires our tracking tool be on your site.

ET’s original function was to make sure educational material was being delivered optimally for each student, hence it would modify my class material on the fly based on how individual students were navigating the site in order to match the {C,B/e,M} matrix of the material to the {C,B/e,M} matrix of each student (the original NSE site did this in real time for each visitor. There are examples in the “Anecdotes of Learning” section of Reading Virtual Minds Volume I: Science and History and referenced above in that lawyer segment). The reason to do this was to insure that the material would be both committed to deep or long-term memory AND be immediately actionable in consciousness.

Yes, actionable, as in “they can and will be able to use and act upon the information” right now.

Remeber and Use, Branding, etc.

And while I’m here, let me offer something that (I believe) is a demonstration of “going one better”. I gave a presentation to the Boston KM Forum in Aug ’06 entitled “Increasing Knowledge Transfer By Adapting Information Presentation Styles On the Fly”. Wordy, I know, and the third slide in that presentation is relevant to this discussion in so many ways. Item #5 on that slide is “Cognition, retention, etc., went high”. That’s how people in my field talk about “branding, engagement, usability, understandability,…” things like that.

The end result was that people were able to remember material as content three times longer, in context seven times longer and be able to utilize that information (ie, “work with it”) ten times longer.

Consider this a “two-fer”. We can recognize and adjust content on the fly for specific “tribes” and deliver targeted messaging by recognizing a tribe then customizing that message so that only the tribe remembers and can use it.

The gender and age of the author of a comment or blog post. (already in TargetTrack)

Read all of the above again (you didn’t skip anything, did you?). Go ahead. I dare you.

The gender and age of the composition of the social network observing the comment or blog post. [Tribe analysis]. (already in TargetTrack…kind of…)

There are two ways to answer this. I’ll start with the part that is “…kind of…”. To determine all visitors would require the tracking tool on your site. We could do it with just TargetTrack for people commenting and do some creative mathematics to guesstulate the entire audience composition. It would be easier and cheaper to use our tracking tool and just have it report the network’s composition.

Or we can answer “Who is this material best suited for?” That’s a pure TargetTrack question as I’ll demonstrate below.

Age appeal for the comments only

“Who is this material is best suited/designed for?” is where differences between just the content and the webpage — graphics, fonts, etc., and content — demonstrate great differences. They make differences everywhere, here they are very pronounced. This chart is from TargetTrack analyzing just the comment stream and determining “What age group is this material is best suited/designed for?”. No graphics, no images, no colors, no fonts, no backgrounds, only the pure text. Forget that there are three lines for now, just remember that this is TargetTrack’s analysis of the comment text only.

This image is TargetTrack analyzing the entirety of the page — graphics, colors, images, fonts, the whole shooting match. See that the yellow line is near flat on this chart? That’s an indication that the introduction of the images, graphics, colors, fonts, etc., etc., etc., are a major distraction to visitors both understanding and using the information presented.

And now, a little more ET Trainings and what are those three lines for again, Joseph?

In the charts above, the red bars are Appeal, the yellow bars are message Clarity and the green bars are message Actionability. Both position on the chart, height and positional relation to each other are extremely important. NextStage’s TargetTrack uses three items because Age is demonstrated by multiple intelligences, ie,

  • the visual intelligence that governs whether or not something will Appeal to a specific Age group,
  • the cognitive intelligence that governs whether or not something will be understandable (Clarity) to a specific Age group and
  • the psychosensory intelligence that governs whether or not something will be Actionable(ity) to a specific Age group

If you wanted, you could group them all together into a single Age metric but you’d lose a great deal of actionable information by doing so.

The point at which each line intersects an age group is an indication of how much of that specific age group is captured. The “just the comments” chart above, for example, indicates that just the comments on the page being analyzed would appeal (red line) to (ie, “get the attention of”) 55% of the 45-54yo market, about 28% of the 35-44 and 55-59yo markets and so on.

The next line of interest is Clarity (ie, “is this understandable?”). The human mind likes to understand things, too clearly see what things are about. But you don’t want people to work for it when you’re selling them something, at least not too hard. This means you want Clarity to target a slightly younger age group that the material appeals to. In other words, you want to get their attention then have them easily understand it, this Clarity (yellow) needs to be a little to the left of the Appeal (red) line.

Now you have to look at Actionability (green). You got their attention (red), they understand your value proposition (yellow), now they must act on that understanding. You want the green line to be just to the right of the red line because people will only act when they recognize value, hence must “reach” and that “reach” and value is detected as requiring slightly more neural effort than both Appeal and Clarity.

Thus the ideal is that the relational position of the lines be Clarity, Appeal, Actionability (yellow, red, green). Further, you want the Appeal (red) to be the highest peak while Clarity (yellow) and Actionability (green) can be even or Actionability just a little higher than Clarity (yellow). Again, this is that “you want them to reach” thing.

Appeal (red) governs whether or not your target audience would give this page a second look, that something on the page would catch their attention and make them stop for a moment or two before going onto something else. In many cases, a well crafted webpage (email, tv ad, radio spot, report, etc) for a given audience would cause them to stop, period, and spend time interacting with the material.

The question about what’s good or bad message Clarity (yellow) has to do with the intended age group for the material. Being understandable by a younger audience is both good and bad. A complex subject written to be clear to a young audience must perforce leave out some of the more complex elements of that subject. A mature audience interacting with the material might consider the material overly simplistic and determine the material incomplete or in error. The goal is to craft material with a Clarity peak close to the target age group.

Actionability (green) measures the amount of education, life experience or maturity required to make use of the information and understand the meaning as opposed to understanding the words (which is what Clarity measures). The phrase, “The true cost of a car’s easy drivability is paid by the consumer” is easy to read but it (probably) takes some life experience to appreciate that as cars have become easier to drive the number of people driving has increased, the amount of training available and skill required to drive has decreased, more accidents occur, the cost of insurance climbs, fuel costs rise due to increased demand, … Making the automobile accessible to the masses may not have served the masses well, necessarily.

You can read more about this at Websites: You’ve Only Got 3 Seconds.

Gender. Yes, we do gender. You really want me to go into details?

The purchase / re-purchase intent of the author. (already in TargetTrack)

It’s in the complete {C,B/e,M} matrix information that we provide clients.

Identification of who, within a social network, is an influencer, a gatekeeper, or a hub. (IE. Identification of who should I talk to first to get movement on a message.) (already in TargetTrack…kind of…)

Depending on what you mean, this is already in TargetTrack or requires TargetTrack plus our tracking tool. I presented The Blogging Power Continuum: How Bloggers and Their Audience Share and Assign Power in a Knowledge-Based Medium at a SNCR conference in both Boston (Dec ’07), “Whispering to Be Heard: The Art and Science of Buzz Marketing” at the New Communications Forum 2008 in Apr 08 and a variation of the Boston presentation in Montreal at the Communicating for Social Impact, International Communications Association Conference 2008 in May ’08. One of the things that I shared was the research into how to recognize influencers and such, how to gain control of blogs, direct them, all sorts of stuff. Perhaps some conference organizer who’s reading this might smile upon me and invite me to present this information at their conference…

Suggestions based on the {C, B/e, M} profile, of how to frame a message. (already in TargetTrack)

I think I’ve exhausted this particular item, yes? Again, if you skipped things, you shouldn’t have as I covered this above.

We do give suggestions for doing this. Depending on what level of TargetTrack you want, these suggestions can be just a few items or several pages long.

Breakdown of conversations based on topic area. (already in TargetTrack)

You tell us how you want it sliced and diced, TargetTrack will report on it.

So, Chris, not one unreasonable thing in the bunch.

I mentioned to Chris that I doubted he could come up with something we hadn’t done already. Remember, NextStage’s tools were doing these things back in 2001 as “tools” and before that as pure technology. The things we’re doing now…?

…pant, pant, pant…thank goodness. Two days of writing. Done. Finito. yea for joey…

Stephane, I’ll get to canoe.ca soon, I promise.


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The Complete “NextStage Evolution’s Evolution Technology, Web Analytics, Behavioral Analytics and Marketing Analytics Reports for the BizMediaScience Blog, 7 day Cycle” Arc

Note: this was another monster arc, provided here in full, thanks to your friendly neighborhood mice, Calum&Eois

NextStage Evolution’s Evolution Technology, Web Analytics, Behavioral Analytics and Marketing Analytics Reports for the BizMediaScience Blog, 7 day Cycle, Part 1: Are Visitors Getting Good Value?

First, as I wrote near the end of Keywords, Search Engines, SEO, Learning, Placement, I’m attempting to craft blog titles that incorporate human syntactical elements and are still search engine friendly, meaning they appear near the top in search engine listings. Cleveland search engine optimization firm Keyphrase-Marketing‘s Jan Limpach explained to me that my previous posts were examples of keyword stuffing.

I’ll admit the revelation made me laugh. Business logic tells me that, if you want people to use your service or product, make it as simple to use as possible. I guess that rule doesn’t apply when you’re at the top of the food chain (as I wrote in Google’s Vulnerability).

First part b, this post was originally very long and, as Eric Pfeiffer, my editor at AllBusiness.com would say, dense, meaning, I think, information rich.

This also makes me chuckle. Long before there was the concept of social media, social networks, viral marketing and such, I wrote a paper entitled “Semantic Information Mechanics”. It dealt with viral fields, Jordan Conjunctures, lots of things and threaded throughout are the concepts of information density. Put all these things together and you get an idea of how much information you can pass through a system (“a person”) before you cause an information shutdown (“overwhelm them”).

Lots of folks have asked for that paper and now that I have more time on my hands I’ll probably revisit it and update it for what NextStage has learned since it was first written.

Anyway, this venue isn’t my AllBusiness.com venue. As I’m learning to modify my writing style there so am I learning to modify it here.

Do BizMediaScience visitors believe their time is well spent?

Looping this back to “First part b”, I was going to share lots of information NextStage Evolution’s reports are telling me about you, the readers of this blog. One of those reports is shown here. I’ll go into details of what this report is indicating (one report per post) in another post. Right now I’ll share that it’s indicating

  • you, the readers of this blog, think you get good value for your time reading my posts (the blue bar and accompanying dots on the right of the chart, and thank you!)
  • that the amount of information contained in most of my posts is overwhelming (the right bar and accompanying dots on the left of the chart, and I’m working on it)

So a tip of the hat to Eric and to you.

Are Visitors Having a Good Experience? (NextStage Evolution’s Evolution Technology, Web Analytics, Behavioral Analytics and Marketing Analytics Reports for the BizMediaScience Blog, 7 day Cycle, Part 2)

My quest for understanding the machiavellian world of SEO and SEM seems to be working. I did a search for “behavioral analytics” on Google and “NextStage Evolution’s Evolution Technology, Web Analytics, Behavioral Analytics and Marketing Analytics Reports for the BizMediaScience Blog, 7 day Cycle, Part 1: Are Visitors Getting Good Value?” came up #1. For that matter, it came up #1 when I searched on “web analytics, behavioral analytics, marketing analytics”, “behavioral analytics, marketing analytics” and as #6 searching on just “marketing analytics”. These were all blog searches.

Anyway, this post is part 2 in an arc on NextStage Evolution’s Evolution Technology reports. This time we’re considering Experience.

This arc got it’s impetus from an email exchange I was having with a frequent reader that also had its origins in the Why my Juanita Bynum post failed to get traction post and the resulting correspondence between WindKiller and myself.

Funny how many things are growing out of that post.

The reader wrote “Maybe it is my lack of analytics knowledge, but if I am on the main page for your blog, can you tell if I am a visitor reading the Bynum posting or a visitor reading a different post? If not, how would you differentiate between which posting attracted the most readers?”

I responded that I don’t know how web analytics handles this. NextStage’s Evolution TechnologyTM (ET)handles it with no problem.

The reader then wrote

“My guess would be they tell you to make sure every article has a click through requirement, so they can measure/tally that (or tally the subsequent page view).  I feel a little silly calling a “+1″ a measurement.  That’s why my guess was that if your blog was not using ET, the ‘measurement’ may be less informative than those to which you are accustomed.”

This is both accurate and goes to something I’ve been pondering for a while. I was once told it’s better to have posts that require the “Continue Reading” link than not because doing so “will increase traffic”.

Really?

I suppose this strategy works if the definition of “traffic” is “pageviews” because the system would count a visitor following the “Continue Reading” link as opening a new page (I’m guessing that’s the case).

The reader is also correct that I find the above concept and the numbers it may provide less informative than the information to which I am accustomed. What I’ll do at this point is share some of the things Evolution Technology tells me about visitors to the BizMediaScience site. You’ll need to decide for yourself how useful this type of information would be to you (and no, I’m sharing everything ET tells us. I’d like to keep my competitive advantage, if you don’t mind).

The important thing to know is that ET doesn’t ask questions, ask visitors to fill in forms, poll other internet databases, use permanent cookies, etc. ET works like any good cultural anthropologist does; by observing. You can read more about how ET works in Reading Virtual Minds.

And with that paid political advertisement out of the way, here we go with Experience

BizMediaScience visitors enjoyed their time on the site

The image on the right is one of our results charts (the actual chart is much bigger). What this chart is showing is that most people are enjoying their time reading my blogs (the green) over the past seven days. A small number of visitors aren’t having a good experience (red) and a slightly larger number are indifferent (yellow).

BizMediaScience visitors enjoyed their time on the site

It’s nice to know you work is appreciated, better to know that appreciation is growing. This image is last week’s chart of the same information. Yes, readers seem to think we’re looking better all the time.

People will ask, “How do you know this if you don’t ask visitors, use focus groups, have them fill out forms, have them in some behavioral index, …?”

My response on a good day is a detailed explanation of what NextStage does and the sciences involved. On a mediocre day it’s “What? You mean you can’t do this?”

Measuring experience — for that matter, measuring just about everything NextStage measures to generate its reports and advise clients — is remarkably straightforward. Some of it was explained in the Noisy Data arc, some of it’s explained on our website on the FAQs page

Do you have more men or women visiting your site? (NextStage Evolution’s Evolution Technology, Web Analytics, Behavioral Analytics and Marketing Analytics Reports for the BizMediaScience Blog, 7 day Cycle, Part 3)

This time we’re considering Gender.

I explained above that this arc grew from an email conversation with a reader spawned by the Why my Juanita Bynum post failed to get traction post.

Joseph is attractive to women

What I’m going to share in this chart and the next is a demonstration of my masculinity, my animal magnetism, my virility, …, yeah, right! Okay, I’m kidding. This image shows that BizMediaScience was visited by more women (pink) in the given seven day cycle than by men (blue). Does this mean I, Joseph, became more attractive to women in the past week? Of course it … I mean, no, not really. Other reports in our system explain why this was the case and how to duplicate it, if desired.

Last week, Joseph was loved and admired by everyone equally

This image is a seven day stretch from a week ago. Evidently my posts appealed to men and women much more evenly last week than they did this week. Again, other ET reports would explain why this happened and how to duplicate the results.

Returning Visitors and How Many? (NextStage Evolution’s Evolution Technology, Web Analytics, Behavioral Analytics and Marketing Analytics Reports for the BizMediaScience Blog, 7 day Cycle, Part 4)

This time we’re considering Returning Visitors. What NextStage is reporting on is probably not what others’ report on when using that term. We’re reporting how many visitors, while they’re on your site, have it in their mind that they’ll return at some point in the recognizable future.

What is recognizable future? The brain isn’t good at understanding time concepts beyond “now” and, when pressed to do it, can understand a 48 hour window around this current moment in time. This means that at whatever time you’re reading this post — let’s say noon — your brain can easily and rapidly work well with information from noon yesterday through to noon tomorrow. Beyond that you’re in the realm of the mind and how time is considered there is very different. I wrote about this in Making Visitors Want It Now.

Recognizable future is the line where the brain’s and mind’s concepts of future meet. Basically about 1-2 days out, so this NextStage report is an indication of how many visitors currently on your site believe they will return to your site within 1-2 days.

Considering the charts I’m sharing in this series are about this blog and I post to it pretty much daily, that could be an important metric. Especially if they don’t return, because then you know something interrupted a planned and desired activity. It’s not the blog itself because a strong influencer for their return is a satisfactory experience, therefore indications of non-returns mean there’s environmental factors that got in the way. Some you can’t control or deal with. Others you can, and knowing how to deal with the interrupters is one of those things NextStage does regularly.

What percentage of visitors will return to BizMediaScience

Next up is what percentage of visitors are likely to return. Remember, this isn’t a metric of how many did return, this is a measure of how many, while they’re on the site, are thinking of returning. The large black block on the chart is showing that about 90% of this blog’s readers will return. Look at the left of the chart and you’ll see a small, yellow dot. That dot and its position indicate why the actual number of repeating, returning visitors might be less than 90% and what you can do about it.

Knowing how many return is nice, knowing how many want to return means you can prepare, knowing how many want to return then don’t could mean your competition is doing something in the market and you may want to investigate.

How Many Real, Live People Are on Your Site? (NextStage Evolution’s Evolution Technology, Web Analytics, Behavioral Analytics and Marketing Analytics Reports for the BizMediaScience Blog, 7 day Cycle, Part 5)

This post is part 5 in an arc on NextStage Evolution’s Evolution Technology reports, this time considering Real Visitors per Session.

Real Visitors per Session and Real Visitors by URL are two answers to the same question. The question is “How many real, live human beings are really visiting my site?” I’m not sure and I think most others answer this question with either cookies, session-ids or something similar. This method has always been flawed to me. What if I see something on a website and call over someone else, “Hey, look at this!” and they sit at the computer, either beside me or taking over my seat? There’s only one cookie and one session-id, but now two people are using the same session-id and cookie to look at a webpage.

Back when NextStage was developing its technology this report truly noteworthy for the simple reason that not everyone had a computer at their desk and not everyone in the family had their own computer. Knowing that someone in a company called over a co-worker was a sure sign that the information on the page was interesting, hence valuable, hence actionable. Ditto for calling over family members. Knowing that mom called dad over, etc., meant there were conversions to be had (probably).

Now that computers are more common “per Session” gets paired with “per URL”. Now a more often occurrence is seeing the same person move amongst several computers at a given cookie-sessionid-location.

In any case, Real Visitors

visitors%20per%20url.jpg

The yellow and blue bars on the chart show number of sessions and number of real visitors per session. When the two don’t match you know that either someone called over someone else and they took over the computer or a single individual moved between two or more computers at a single physical location to view the same site.

How does ET know that more than a single user was involved in a single session? How much time do you have for me to explain it to you? The truth is, it’s not that difficult to understand and makes use of NextStage’s Rich Personae system, something I’ve written about in Mapping Personae to Outcomes.

NextStage’s standard Rich Personae system recognizes 72 different personality types and this is more than adequate for commercial purposes. It is capable of recognizing several thousands so even the most heavily trafficked sites can be analyzed along these means for reporting purposes.

This also handles the question of “What if I call over someone but they don’t sit down at the computer?” Excellent question and yes, when we up ET’s sensitivity it can determine that person B wasn’t sitting at the computer but that they were telling person A what to do. As Angie Brown, Strategic Services Consultant for Coremetrics (at the time) said, “I kept waiting for the “We expect this technology to be available in a few years” part, so it took a little while for it to sink in that you’re doing this NOW.”

What’s the Age Breakdown of Your Visitors? (NextStage Evolution’s Evolution Technology, Web Analytics, Behavioral Analytics and Marketing Analytics Reports for the BizMediaScience Blog, 7 day Cycle, Part 6)

Age is an interesting thing. For one, often people give an inaccurate value for their age (as I did in Media Free? That’s easy…and scary. Know why? (Part 20). For another, people may not “act their age” and this goes both ways. I was always accused of being mature beyond my years as a child. As an adult I was often told I was “an old soul”. Then there’s the poor sot who just can’t seem to grow up.

People not acting their age often comes from people not thinking their age. The example I often use is the boomer who buys himself an arrest-me red Corvette or Lotus Elan. I gave an example of this in AllBusiness.com’s Chris Bjorklund Interviews Joseph Carrabis on Color Use in Marketing. The mindset that buys the arrest-me red Corvette or Lotus Elan is often not the mindset that’s looking at senior citizen vacations, therefore market to the Buyer-Within, market to the mindset to make the sale.

NextStage recognizes this mindset as Neurologic Age. Neurologic Age can vary greatly from chronological age, and usually only so in specific demographics (ie, those who like to think they’re mature and those who like to think they’re young), in specific verticals or with specific products so course corrections are easily made.

In any case, Age Demographics

age%20breakdown%201.jpg

There are two elements to consider when evaluating age demographics. The first is shown on the right and is “Of all visitors, what’s the age breakdown?” This is answered in a pie chart. This chart is indicating that this blog is very popular among 20-54 year olds along the following breakdown:

Age in years % of Visitors
20-24 28.57
25-34 32.14
35-44 32.14
45-54 7.14

Some quick math indicates there’s 0.01% not accounted for in this chart, probably the 55-59 year olds as I doubt I’m writing much of interest to 15-19 year olds.

age%20breakdown%202.jpg

The second element is confidence in the measurement. This is shown in the chart on the right. The blue that goes above the yellow is high confidence age extrapolation, below the yellow line is low confidence. Here is see that ET is confident that the 20-44 year olds really are 20-44 years old and not as confident that the 45-54 year olds really are that old.

Are Visitors Interested in Your Content? (NextStage Evolution’s Evolution Technology, Web Analytics, Behavioral Analytics and Marketing Analytics Reports for the BizMediaScience Blog, 7 day Cycle, Part 7)

Here we’re looking at Level of Interest as discussed in Defining Attention on Websites & Blogs.

Yes, I know other folks are suggesting they can correctly determine visitors’ attention on a website. I disagree with their methodology and not just because NextStage does it differently. I would disagree simply because what they’re measuring doesn’t equate to attention or level of interest in any neuroscience, cognitive science, behavioral science, {pick your adjective} science that I’m aware of.

Interest level for this blog for 23-30 Aug '07

Here you see the Level of Interest in this blog’s content over a seven day period. Pretty much this image is indicating that there was lots of interest in my blog from 24-29 Aug ’07 (must have lots of weekend readers) with specific peaks on the 27th and 29th.

Well, what was I posting about on those days?

Date (and in order of posting) Post
27 First Principles of Good Design
27 iPhonics
27 Got a kick out of this
27 Stonewall’s Findings: A New Kind of Community Response Grid
27 Alberto Gonzales from the NextStage Perspective
29 Why my Juanita Bynum post failed to get traction
29 Romney, Mitt Romney, Governor Romney, Social, Social Networks, Social Media, Video, Multimedia, TV, Advertising

What’s particularly interesting to me about this is that the values in the area chart above are not indicative of actual visitors. You could normalize one to the other and the same basic form would show through.

Interest Level across several sites

For example, the chart here is for the same period of time as above but is an aggregate of some 30 randomly chosen sites in our system. Evidently 29 Aug ’07 was simply a day of interest across the board. This doesn’t mean this blog wasn’t interesting in and of itself, only that visitors to sites in general were showing more interest than they were on most other days. How come? Could be people were planning for the long weekend and didn’t feel like focusing on the job. There are ways to know and that’s beyond the purpose of this arc.

Does team standing affect your interest in other things? Oh, yeah...

Interestingly, things like having high levels of interest and attention across the board happen. Tex, one of our researchers who comments on our political research fairly often, noted that New England based people browsing during the 2004 baseball season demonstrated activity closely matched to how the Red Sox were doing in the playoffs.

Does preparing your income tax increase your anxiety level? Darn right it does!

One other time our staff sociologist noticed that people’s anxiety levels closely matched where they were in their tax preparation cycle over a weekend. Fascinating stuff. To us, anyway.

Can You Tell What Posts Are Most Interesting? (NextStage Evolution’s Evolution Technology, Web Analytics, Behavioral Analytics and Marketing Analytics Reports for the BizMediaScience Blog, 7 day Cycle, Finale)

I’ll close this arc by answering the question that got it going, “Maybe it is my lack of analytics knowledge, but if I am on the main page for your blog, can you tell if I am a visitor reading the Bynum posting or a visitor reading a different post? If not, how would you differentiate between which posting attracted the most readers?”

Again noting that traditional web analytics measures traffic volume and NextStage is more interested in interest levels, attention and engagement, this chart shows that during the 7 day period covered by these arcs, the post that generated the most interest was from some time back, Nothing New Under the Sun (Humanic Search Engines, part 1) (the red line at the top of the chart).

What got the next highest level of interest was reading a broad swath of posts (the dark blue and dark red lines two and three up respectively from the bottom). This would cover the posts from The non-locality of Pizza Shops to Keywords, Search Engines, SEO, Learning, Placement.

Next in line of interest are two posts and a topic; Alberto Gonzales from the NextStage Perspective, Is the future of political advertising social networks? and the About BizMediaScience. It seems some readers — probably new to this blog — were attracted by the posts then wondered who the person was who was authoring them.

The next most interesting topic was the MediaFree and Gridless arc. This doesn’t surprise me based on emails I’ve received and phone calls I’ve participated in.

To the reader’s question about being able to recognize the BizMediaScience main page; yes, that’s indicated by the gold line at the very bottom of the chart. What we’re seeing is that the main page on a post by post basis is interesting enough to send people looking at other posts. Guess I’ll have to work on that. We could determine which “main page” was getting the most interest with a flip of a software switch, so to speak.


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